The scientists note that “the forecast outcome, at least in first few years, is likely to be dominated by natural variations in the climate system, predominantly from the 'weather' in the oceans.” A good forecast: the global heat wave of the mid-2010s This hybrid system also incorporates airborne gases and particles (both human-produced and volcanic) and solar variability. Scientists at the Hadley Centre have squeezed forecast value out of ocean observations by coupling them with a variant of the UKMET atmospheric model used for weather forecasts. Because water is so much more dense than air, the global patchwork of warmer- and cooler-than-average ocean conditions at any point in time has a lot of influence over both short-range weather and longer-range climate. This isn’t quite as far-fetched as it sounds. The only catch is that you’ll have to wait a few years to see if that one is right.Įach year since 2012, the Hadley Centre (the research arm of Britain’s weather service) has issued an outlook projecting global temperature out to five years. The UK Met Office also has an outlook that practically screams “warmer conditions to come”. If you’re one of them, there is hope on the horizon: a push of much milder air will envelop the Midwest and Northeast U.S. Image credit: Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images.įrom Montana to Maine, millions of Americans are sick and tired of an April that’s been masquerading as February. Thursday was the UK's warmest April day in almost 70 years, with temperatures topping 84☏ in London (see bottom of post). Above: People enjoy the warm weather in Piccadilly Gardens on Apin Manchester, United Kingdom.
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